{"id":11260,"date":"2023-12-24T16:06:04","date_gmt":"2023-12-24T19:06:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nogoyatimes.com\/?p=11260"},"modified":"2023-12-24T16:06:04","modified_gmt":"2023-12-24T19:06:04","slug":"estiman-que-el-saldo-comercial-se-incrementara-en-us-15-000-millones-en-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nogoyatimes.com\/?p=11260","title":{"rendered":"Estiman que el saldo comercial se incrementar\u00e1 en US$ 15.000 millones en 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

Seg\u00fan Ecolatina<\/h2>\n
\n
Un informe privado atribuye la mejora al rebote en las exportaciones agr\u00edcolas, la reversi\u00f3n del d\u00e9ficit comercial energ\u00e9tico y un mayor aporte de la miner\u00eda.<\/section>\n<\/header>\n
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En medio de la publicaci\u00f3n de un nuevo dato deficitario de la balanza comercial en noviembre, d\u00edas atr\u00e1s por parte del INDEC, un informe de la consultora Ecolatina estim\u00f3 un incremento de US$ 15.000 millones en el saldo comercial para el 2024.<\/p>\n

El trabajo privado asoci\u00f3 el resultado positivo al \u201crebote en las exportaciones agr\u00edcolas, de la mano del fin de la sequ\u00eda; la reversi\u00f3n del d\u00e9ficit comercial energ\u00e9tico, por medio de la puesta en marcha del Gasoducto Presidente N\u00e9stor Kirchner; un mayor aporte de la miner\u00eda; y un encarecimiento de las importaciones, sumado a una recesi\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica que tender\u00eda a limitar la demanda por importaciones producto de la menor demanda dom\u00e9stica\u201d.<\/p>\n

La proyecci\u00f3n alentadora para el a\u00f1o entrante ponder\u00f3 las medidas implementadas por el nuevo Gobierno de Javier Milei, a las cuales se vincula la mejor perspectiva, se\u00f1alando que por un lado la serie de decisiones apuntan, en lo inmediato, a \u201crecrear incentivos a las exportaciones y desalentar importaciones, buscando una mejora de la balanza comercial que sea motor de la recuperaci\u00f3n de las reservas internacionales\u201d.<\/p>\n

En tanto que, por otro lado, el an\u00e1lisis indic\u00f3 que tambi\u00e9n permiten \u201cbrindar previsibilidad sobre la normalizaci\u00f3n del flujo de nuevas importaciones y el repago del elevado stock de deuda comercial acumulada bajo la necesidad de administrar las divisas durante estos meses de baja estacionalidad de exportaciones hasta el ingreso de las divisas de la cosecha gruesa (segundo trimestre 2024)\u201d.<\/p>\n

Entre las medidas que desde Ecolatina consideran que beneficiar\u00e1n a que se cumpla su estimaci\u00f3n favorable del saldo comercial aparecen:<\/p>\n

Cambios en el r\u00e9gimen cambiario:<\/b><\/p>\n

Elevaci\u00f3n del tipo de cambio oficial en el orden del 120%.<\/p>\n

Habilitaci\u00f3n a los exportadores para liquidar el 20% de las divisas al d\u00f3lar CCL.<\/p>\n

Incremento del Impuesto Pa\u00eds a las importaciones del 7,5% al 17,5%.<\/p>\n

Se busca mantener una tasa de inter\u00e9s positiva en d\u00f3lares: que la tasa en pesos sea mayor al crawling peg del d\u00f3lar oficial.<\/p>\n

Administrar el stock de deuda comercial:<\/b><\/p>\n

El BCRA emiti\u00f3 bonos para importadores de bienes y servicios con deuda comercial pendiente de pago.<\/p>\n

Los bonos tienen un plazo menor al de un bono “AL”.<\/p>\n

Son bonos del BCRA y no del Tesoro.<\/p>\n

No existe una restricci\u00f3n cruzada entre su venta contra d\u00f3lares y un acceso posterior al MULC.<\/p>\n

Nuevos flujos:<\/b><\/p>\n

Reemplazo del sistema SIRA-SIRASE por uno que no requerir\u00e1 la aprobaci\u00f3n previa de licencias.<\/p>\n

Diferenciaciones y plazos para el acceso al MULC para importadores.<\/p>\n

D\u00e9ficit comercial de noviembre<\/h5>\n

Los datos del INDEC hab\u00edan revelado que el saldo comercial exhibi\u00f3 un nuevo d\u00e9ficit en noviembre (-US$ 615 millones) por noveno mes al hilo, acumulando en 2023 un rojo comercial de US$ 8.000 millones, contrastado con un super\u00e1vit de US$ 5.800 millones en el mismo lapso de 2022 (una diferencia de US$ 13.800 millones).<\/p>\n

Desde Ecolatina vincularon el desplome de las exportaciones a la sequ\u00eda, y a los precios internacionales en ca\u00edda cayendo, por lo que sumaron tan s\u00f3lo US$ 4.872 millones (-32% interanual), con vol\u00famenes registrando una abrupta ca\u00edda (-22% interanual), al tiempo que los precios promedio, lejos de compensar, contin\u00faan disminuyendo (-12% interanual). Los rubros que encabezan las desmejoras son los asociados a la agroindustria: Productos Primarios y Manufacturas de Origen Agropecuario.<\/p>\n

Los vol\u00famenes importados, por su parte, descendieron luego de un trimestre al alza, manteni\u00e9ndose a flote en el a\u00f1o. Las compras externas alcanzaron los US$ 5.487 millones (-5% interanual), con cantidades cayendo (-3% interanual) por primera vez luego de tres meses, en tanto los precios registraron otra baja (-2% interanual). En el a\u00f1o, los vol\u00famenes importados caen s\u00f3lo 3%. Fuente: NA<\/p><\/div>\n

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Seg\u00fan Ecolatina Un informe privado atribuye la mejora al rebote en las exportaciones agr\u00edcolas, la reversi\u00f3n del d\u00e9ficit comercial energ\u00e9tico y un mayor aporte de la miner\u00eda. En medio de la publicaci\u00f3n de un nuevo dato deficitario de la balanza…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11261,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19,4,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia","category-nacionales","category-noticias"],"yoast_head":"\nEstiman que el saldo comercial se incrementar\u00e1 en US$ 15.000 millones en 2024 - Nogoy\u00e1 Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/nogoyatimes.com\/?p=11260\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Estiman que el saldo comercial se incrementar\u00e1 en US$ 15.000 millones en 2024 - Nogoy\u00e1 Times\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Seg\u00fan Ecolatina Un informe privado atribuye la mejora al rebote en las exportaciones agr\u00edcolas, la reversi\u00f3n del d\u00e9ficit comercial energ\u00e9tico y un mayor aporte de la miner\u00eda. 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