{"id":12926,"date":"2024-02-18T20:10:32","date_gmt":"2024-02-18T23:10:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nogoyatimes.com\/?p=12926"},"modified":"2024-02-18T20:10:32","modified_gmt":"2024-02-18T23:10:32","slug":"proyectan-una-caida-del-20-del-salario-real-en-argentina-durante-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nogoyatimes.com\/?p=12926","title":{"rendered":"Proyectan una ca\u00edda del 20% del salario real en Argentina durante 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

Estudios<\/h2>\n

La inflaci\u00f3n de 211,4% que registr\u00f3 el Indec para todo 2023 signific\u00f3 un golpe fuerte para los salarios, que ya acumulaban cinco a\u00f1os consecutivos de ca\u00edda en t\u00e9rminos reales, porque subieron mucho menos.<\/b><\/p>\n

Frente a la aceleraci\u00f3n de los precios, que termin\u00f3 de desbarrancarse tras la devaluaci\u00f3n de diciembre, los sueldos subieron 152,7%, seg\u00fan el \u00edndice general del Indec, lo que represent\u00f3 una p\u00e9rdida de casi 19% en el a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

En el promedio del a\u00f1o, la contracci\u00f3n del poder de compra de los salarios fue menor (3,7%), pero la gran p\u00e9rdida del \u00faltimo mes del a\u00f1o hizo que, punta a punta, la merma de poder adquisitivo se potenciara. El arranque de 2024 mantuvo la tendencia, con una inflaci\u00f3n que trep\u00f3 al 20,6% y salarios que aumentaron mucho menos.<\/p>\n

\u00bfQu\u00e9 se espera para el resto del a\u00f1o? \u00bfHabr\u00e1 recuperaci\u00f3n o ser\u00e1 otro a\u00f1o m\u00e1s de p\u00e9rdida de poder de compra, tras el impacto del ajuste de precios relativos y la recesi\u00f3n?<\/i><\/p>\n

Infobae consult\u00f3 a varios economistas al respecto y las previsiones, por ahora, no son alentadoras. Si se llega al empate, habr\u00e1 que brindar, afirman algunos. Pero lo que s\u00ed est\u00e1 claro es que si llegara a haber un cambio de tendencia, no ser\u00e1 durante este primer semestre, sino cuando la inflaci\u00f3n comience a descender.<\/p>\n

El reacomodamiento de precios relativos que todav\u00eda debe darse en los pr\u00f3ximos meses le pondr\u00e1 un piso alto a la suba del Indice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC), pero si el plan econ\u00f3mico tiene \u00e9xito y realmente la inflaci\u00f3n logra caer -de la mano de un tipo de cambio que no se mueva demasiado-, reci\u00e9n ah\u00ed los trabajadores podr\u00e1n pensar en comenzar a recuperar ingreso real, aseguran los economistas.<\/p>\n

De todos modos, en l\u00ednea con lo que se espera suceda con la actividad, la recuperaci\u00f3n salarial no ser\u00e1 homog\u00e9nea.<\/p>\n

Los sectores que se estima sufrir\u00e1n m\u00e1s son los ligados al consumo interno, que viene en franco receso, y la construcci\u00f3n, que se est\u00e1 viendo muy afectada por la falta de fondos para obra p\u00fablica.<\/p>\n

Mientras que los rubros con mayor potencial exportador, como la miner\u00eda, el agro, la energ\u00eda y la econom\u00eda del conocimiento, tendr\u00e1n mejores perspectivas.<\/p>\n

Tampoco ser\u00e1 lo mismo para un trabajador registrado que uno que se encuentra en la informalidad, ya que los salarios en negro no s\u00f3lo son habitualmente mucho m\u00e1s bajos, sino los que m\u00e1s pierden frente a la inflaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

\u201cEl shock nominal que signific\u00f3 la devaluaci\u00f3n y que continuar\u00e1 con las sucesivas subas de tarifas y precios regulados se trasladar\u00e1 a la din\u00e1mica salarial. Sin embargo, la fuerte recesi\u00f3n actuar\u00e1 moderando las demandas salariales. Si bien seguramente veremos sindicatos -en algunos casos importantes- que lograr\u00e1n acuerdos virtualmente indexados a la inflaci\u00f3n pasada, no esperamos que esto sea un fen\u00f3meno generalizado\u201d, precis\u00f3 la consultora Ecolatina en un reciente informe.<\/p>\n

En este sentido, el informe de la consultora de marras agreg\u00f3 que habr\u00e1 una \u201ccontinuidad del deterioro del poder adquisitivo a lo largo del verano, que se estima ser\u00e1 superior a 10%, pero que adem\u00e1s profundizar\u00e1 la disparidad salarial entre distintos sectores\u201d.<\/p>\n

Ecolatina tambi\u00e9n consider\u00f3 que la ausencia de una pauta salarial por parte de un Gobierno busca paritarias libres que favorezcan a los trabajadores de sectores m\u00e1s productivos, que pueden seguir pagando salarios relativamente altos. Por eso, empezar\u00e1 a verse cierta \u201cdisociaci\u00f3n entre el derrotero del salario real hacia dentro de los trabajadores registrados\u201d.<\/p>\n

Y agrega: \u201cLos privados continuar\u00e1n siguiendo de cerca, con vaivenes, a la inflaci\u00f3n, mientras que los trabajadores p\u00fablicos sufrir\u00e1n un deterioro mayor producto del ahorro del gasto que pretender\u00e1 hacer el Gobierno en sus diferentes niveles. Finalmente, no prevemos que haya una recuperaci\u00f3n en los trabajadores informales. La ausencia de paritarias y una mayor cantidad de potenciales trabajadores ante la necesidad de apuntalar los ingresos familiares dar\u00e1 espacio para que este grupo absorba la mayor parte del ajuste salarial\u201d. Fuente: Infobae<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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Estudios La inflaci\u00f3n de 211,4% que registr\u00f3 el Indec para todo 2023 signific\u00f3 un golpe fuerte para los salarios, que ya acumulaban cinco a\u00f1os consecutivos de ca\u00edda en t\u00e9rminos reales, porque subieron mucho menos. Frente a la aceleraci\u00f3n de los…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":12927,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19,4,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia","category-nacionales","category-noticias"],"yoast_head":"\nProyectan una ca\u00edda del 20% del salario real en Argentina durante 2024 - Nogoy\u00e1 Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/nogoyatimes.com\/?p=12926\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Proyectan una ca\u00edda del 20% del salario real en Argentina durante 2024 - Nogoy\u00e1 Times\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Estudios La inflaci\u00f3n de 211,4% que registr\u00f3 el Indec para todo 2023 signific\u00f3 un golpe fuerte para los salarios, que ya acumulaban cinco a\u00f1os consecutivos de ca\u00edda en t\u00e9rminos reales, porque subieron mucho menos. 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